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June 9, 2003

Warbaby says:

Bush and the neocons didn't lie about Irag.  They constructed a fantasy world in which all their dreams would come true -- and defended it with the savage fury of the truely mad.  Now that reality is battering against their delusions, cognitive dissonance is taking hold and the delusions are clutched more tightly than ever.

It would be better if they were cynical liars playing spin games.  The truth is much worse -- they are delusional and losing touch with reality.

As things really begin to fall apart in Iraq, it's worth trying to separate out the wheat from the chaff.  The political debate now boiling up is a direct consequence of not having had the debate before we went to war.  Mister Bush got his "blank check" from a thoroughly cowed and cowardly Congress.

The problem is that the check has bounced.  Now the hunt is on for fall-guys and scapegoats - fine old political tradition that has nothing to do with making good policy or fixing bad ones.  It's just the old Beltway game of "who's in and who's out."

Be that as it may, it is worth looking back at the record and seeing what we were told and compare it to the reality:

• Claim: Iraq's Baathist regime had ties to al Qaeda and may have shared responsibility for the 9/11 attacks.  Reality:  There is no meaningful connection between Iraqi Baathists and al Qaeda's anti-secularist fanatics.
• Claim: Iraq possessed strategically significant stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons which threatened the peace in the region.  Iraq also had a clandestine nuclear weapons program that was working on building atomic bombs. Reality:  Iraq had no stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons (either concealed or otherwise) and had no battlefield-ready chemical or biological weapons.
• Claim:  Iraqis would greet us as liberators.  Reality:  They view us as invaders and infidels -- and incompetent ones at that.
• Claim:  There would be mass surrenders of Iraqi troops during an American invasion.  Reality:  the Republican Guard were slaughtered in air attacks on the outskirks of Baghdad and when the Guard crumbled, the conscript army bolted like rabits.
• Claim: The Baathist regime would be "decapitated" during the war, leaving the organs of state power intact for a "transition government" to take over.  Reality:  Not only was the "decapitation" impossible, but there is strong evidence that Saddam planned all along for an active resistance to make the occupation impossible and that the "looting" is enabled by strategic sabotage by "stay-behind" forces following a cohesive plan for guerilla warfare.

Given the scope of the intelligence flaws, there's hardly any pre-war assumptions which stood up to the hard facts of reality.  Even now, the inertia of the massive miscalculations are still preventing the formulation of a workable post-war policy.

The limp and excessively narrow crys from a handful of political opportunists that the WMD estimates were wrong and Bush "lied" about them.  They don't come anywhere near addressing the real issue:

Bush and Company were seriously deluded about the realities of Iraq.  They bullied, browbeat and ignored anyone who brought them intelligence at odds with the what they wanted to be true.  They didn't lie about Iraq -- they furiously defended a delusion which they created for political expediency -- and fooled themselves more than their opponents.

This sort of nonsense has stood them all in good stead in domestic politics.  Move the terms of debate so far from reality that any attempt at rational debate is useless.  Smash down opposition with callous disregard for the truth.  Exagerate threats, attack responsible professionals, treat any and all issues as theatrical debates and let the devil take the hindmost.

The current mess is Iraq is bad and will get worse.  The Bushites attempts at policy are doomed because they will not face up to reality.  Hold on to your hats, because as things get worse on the ground, Bush and the neocon gang will come up with new fantasies of how they want the world to be -- a perfect recipe for disaster. 

It would be better if they were lying because that would mean they could recognize the truth when it stares them in the face.  Instead we are going to see endless zig-zagging in any direction that preserves the delusions and avoids the reality.