The key element in the New Right's political strategy hinges on the use of independent expenditure campaigns. In an independent expenditure, the funds are spent directly by a political action committee, rather than being contributed to the candidate. The most notorious independent expenditure campaign of recent times featured the "Willie Horton" television ad that was used against Michael Dukakis in the 1988 presidential election. Since the ads were independent expenditures, the Bush campaign could simultaneously benefit from the blatant appeal to racism and claim that it was none of their doing.
In Keystone's 1993 independent expenditure campaign, there are several ways to calculate its effect on the races. One method would be to take the total raised by Keystone and consider that an equal amount of value contributed to each of the candidates it endorsed and supported with mass mailings. That effectively multiplies the Keystone fund-raising by seven. By this analysis, the Keystone independent expenditure campaign raised the average receipts of its Bellingham candidates to $30,474, and its County candidates to $24,455. This should be taken as the upper limit for the boost given by Keystone to its candidates.
For a lower limit, the Keystone contributions of $13,844 can be divided by seven and equally distributed among its candidates. This is what would have occurred if Keystone had simply divided its money into equal contributions of $1,978 to all of its candidates. This would raise the Bellingham average total contributions to $15,607 and the County candidates average would rise to $12,589.
The benefit to candidates is much greater from an independent expenditure campaign than it is from PAC contributions to individual campaigns. An independent expenditure campaign allowed Keystone to effectively lend more support to the County Council candidates together than by dealing with each campaign separately. The value of Keystone's support to each of its candidates is very likely closer to the upper limit of $13,844 than it is to the lower one of $1,978. If each candidate had wished to reproduce the mailings that comprised most of Keystone's support, the larger amount would come closer to the mark.
The symbols after the candidates names indicate:
* = Incumbent
(W) = Won
(L) = Lost
Bellingham City Council Keystone Endorsed Not Keystone
Bruce Ayers (W) $12,132
Louise Bjornson* (W) $12,005
John Blethen (L) $ 9,182
Sandra Fancher-Garcia (L) $ 3,052
Bob Hall (W) $<2,000
Gene Knutson (W) $ 970
Foster Rose* (L) $ 2,137
Orphalee Smith (L) $15,128
======= =======
Total $29,260 $27,346
Avg. per candidate $ 9,753 $ 9,115
Keystone avg. less Hall $13,630
Note: The averages are a little deceptive due to Bob Hall's pledge to the voters to run a low cost campaign. If Hall is excluded from the Keystone total for the City races -- he did not actively campaign as a Keystone candidate, but passively accepted their endorsement -- the Keystone average per candidate rises to $13,630.
County Council Keystone Endorsed Not Keystone
Marlene Dawson (W) $ 4,275
Bob Imhof* (W) $ 3,645
Marge Laidlaw* (L) $10,747
Ward Nelson (W) $15,386
Alvin Starkenburg (W) $19,138
Lora Strobel (L) $ 6,843
Dennis Vander Yacht(L) $ <500
Sherlyn Wells (L $16,904
======= =======
Total $42,444 $34,994
Avg. per candidate $10,611 $ 8,749
The above tables show that there was a slight bias in favor of Keystone endorsed candidates -- they consistantly raised more direct money than their opponents. It is also true that many contributors gave both to the Keystone endorsed candidates directly and also gave money to the Keystone PAC.
Now distribute the Keystone funds of $13,844 evenly among their candidates:
($13,844 / 7 = $1,978):
City candidates County Candidates
Average $13,630 $10,611
plus Keystone $ 1,978 $ 1,978
======= =======
$15,630 $12,584
The figures suggest that in the absence of an independent expenditure campaign, the Keystone candidates had the potential to outspend their opponents $1.71 to $1.00 ($15,630 to $9,115) in Bellingham and $1.43 to $1.00 ($12,584 to $8,749) in the County. These figures approximate the financial resources available to the Wise Use candidates if they had all run individual campaigns.
However, if the full "coat-tail effect" is taken into account, the Keystone independent expenditures more likely had the effect of adding the full value of $13,844 to each of their candidates:
City Candidates County Candidates
Average $13,630 $10,611
plus Keystone $13,844 $13,844
======= =======
$27,474 $24,455
The "multiplier effect" of combining candidates into a slate and then boosting the slate with independent expenditures becomes immediately obvious. Taking the full effect into account, this suddenly shifts the spending ratio to $3.01 to $1.00 ($27,474 to $9,115) in Bellingham races and $2.79 to $1.00 ($24,455 to $8,749) in the County.
The lesson of 1993 was lost on the Whatcom Democratic Party as an institution. In the 1994 elections, they failed to coordinate their campaigns effectively. Exactly the same sort of independent expenditure campaigns that were so effective in 1993 in Whatcom County were now seen on a national scale. The result was the defeat of the majority party. The experiences in Whatcom and Snohomish Counties should have been a storm signal, but were ignored by a party that had become complacent, divided and out of touch. The 1996 elections will show if the Democrats can learn to adapt or if the Democratic Party has been effectively destroyed as a political force.
The Republicans, on the other hand, have shown substantial benefits from independent expenditure campaigns and a firm grasp of the principles involved. Rep. Tom Foley was defeated by a national independent expenditure campaign organized by anti-gun control forces. The independent expenditure group was known as De-Foley-Ate or DF8. DF8 made very innovative use of electronic mail and the internet in promoting the campaign and soliciting funds.
Likewise, the linkage between candidates and ballot initiatives was also well developed. In California, the anti-immigrant Proposition 148 played a major role in polarizing the political climate. In Washington State, Initiative 159 -- "Hard Time for Armed Crime", an initiative to the legislature which sought to increase the penalties for violent crimes, recieved heavy backing from the anti-gun control lobby, including Alan Gottlieb's Citizen's Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms. In a last minute mailing, 2nd District congressional candidate Jack Metcalf sent out several thousand copies of the I-159 petition with a letter of endorsement. This mailing greatly bolstered Metcalf's position as being "tough on crime." It also gained him a "coat-tail" effect by linking a vote for the initiative in the voter's minds with Metcalf's candidacy.
The Washington State Public Disclosure Commission does not have any jurisdiction over federal campaigns, which are the responsibility of the Federal Elections Commission. The I-159 campaign did not report any in-kind contribution relating to Metcalf's letter of endorsement. Since no expenditures in relation to the Metcalf mailing were disclosed to the people of Washington through the public disclosure filings of the "Hard Time for Armed Crime" campaign, the question must be asked: did this particular action violate the rights of the citizens to know about the financing of the initiative campaign?
The use of independent expenditure campaigns may ultimately be limited by more vigorous enforcement of the public disclosure laws, increasing vigilance on the part of "good government" groups like Common Cause and the League of Women Voters, and better awareness on the part of journalists.
The ultimate effect of the independent expenditure campaigns --particularly those which are funded by narrow interests -- is to reduce the chances of a truely independent candidate's election to nil. The increased power of concentrated wealth in manipulating the voting process will make it harder for the people to have a voice in their own affairs and to mind what is very much their own business.
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